The stock market rebounded Tuesday following a steep sell-off on Monday, but don’t let the day-to-day drama fool you. Zoom out a bit, and the broader picture looks shaky. The Dow, for example, could be heading toward its worst April since 1932—a claim we’ll soon be able to confirm as the final trading days wrap up.

Meanwhile, gold prices shattered records Monday, closing at an eye-watering $3,500 per ounce. Investors are clearly searching for safe havens as confidence in the economy waivers.

That confidence isn’t just lacking among market-watchers. A CNBC poll shows President Trump’s economic approval ratings have tanked, hitting the lowest point of his presidency. Predictably, Democrats have jumped ship—but more concerning for the White House is that independents are growing skeptical too.

Trade uncertainty is rattling investors and influencing these shifting opinions. The IMF’s latest forecast reflects this cautious mood: U.S. growth is projected at 1.8% in 2025—down nearly a full point from last year. While the IMF doesn’t see a full-blown recession on the horizon just yet, it has raised the probability of one to 40%—a sharp increase from October’s 27%. JPMorgan’s forecast is even gloomier, putting the recession odds at 60%.

Still, not everyone’s ready to panic. Chevron’s CEO advised calm, emphasizing that much of the market’s fate hinges on reaching trade deals, especially with China.

And that brings us to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who ignited Tuesday’s market rally with some behind-closed-doors optimism. In a private investor briefing, Bessent reportedly said that a “de-escalation” in the trade war with China is on the near horizon.

This came despite ongoing radio silence from both sides when it comes to concrete negotiations. Sources say Bessent still believes a breakthrough is possible soon. And while Trump may have a few tricks up his sleeve, the need for resolution is growing more urgent by the day.

On the global stage, China isn’t exactly playing the peacemaker. Ironically, it plans to host a UN meeting to accuse the U.S. of trade bullying—this from a regime that’s bullying South Korea with threats of sanctions, simply because it dares to sell rare-earth-based products to the U.S. defense sector.

China controls a near-monopoly on rare earth minerals and has tried to blacklist U.S. access. Fortunately, the U.S. has found ways around this through partners like South Korea. Still, Beijing’s economic intimidation is a reminder of why the trade war matters: it’s a battle not just over tariffs but over who gets to call the shots in global commerce.

Steve Moore, a former Trump economic advisor, remains upbeat. He points to WTO projections showing a 77% plunge in Chinese exports to the U.S. this year—a dramatic shift that could boost domestic manufacturing and encourage further investment stateside.

Trump seems to agree. He convened with top retailers—including Walmart and Home Depot—to chart the path forward, knowing full well that this transition won’t be instant. We live in a world of on-demand everything, but reshaping global supply chains takes patience. The former Home Depot CEO weighed in on just how complicated this really is. [Bite #10]

Trump’s broader strategy includes strengthening alliances with partners other than China, paving the way for a freer, more balanced global economy. Vice President JD Vance echoed that vision yesterday, adding another boost to market sentiment.

Still, there’s a looming challenge for business owners facing trade-related costs: interest rates. Calls are growing louder for the Federal Reserve to cut them. One business owner made the case plainly and economist Jeremy Siegel seconded the motion.

The big question: will Fed Chair Jerome Powell budge?

Trump doesn’t think so. He’s accused Powell of playing politics rather than prioritizing the economy—and Project Veritas-style footage from journalist James O’Keefe seems to support that claim, featuring a Fed insider with eyebrow-raising commentary.

Whether or not the source is reliable, it’s clear the optics aren’t good. With evidence stacking up in favor of rate cuts, Powell may need to put politics aside—if he wants to keep pace with economic reality.

In the meantime, expect more wild swings. As long as trade tensions simmer and the Fed stays cagey, markets will likely keep swinging from euphoria to despair—and back again. Buckle up.