With the November 2024 general election creeping up, Michigan voters are as divided as ever, though a good chunk of them can’t wait to hit the polls. A recent statewide survey of 580 likely voters by Mitchell Research and Communications for Michigan News Source and MIRS, reveals that a whopping 73% are “very enthusiastic” about casting their ballots, suggesting that political fatigue hasn’t completely set in.
Still, 12% of respondents are either “not very” or “not at all enthusiastic,” proving that some Michiganders are less than thrilled about choosing between candidates who feel like reheated leftovers.
Polls, Polls Everywhere: Voters Lean Towards Absentee Voting (Again)
Perhaps unsurprisingly, absentee ballots look to be the belle of the ballot box this year. A solid 59% of respondents plan to vote from the comfort of their own homes (or couches).
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Only 34% are gearing up for the full Election Day experience at their local polling centers, and a scant 7% will brave the early voting days. This shift toward absentee voting has become the new normal – no hanging chads or long lines here, just mailboxes doing the heavy lifting. Hopefully the USPS can handle the workload although most people don’t think they will be able to.
Enthusiasm vs. Reality: Age, Race, and Region Divide the Voter Base
The survey data has the demographics of the poll as follows: White voters make up 81% of those surveyed, and men slightly outnumber women at 53% to 47%. Regionally, West Michigan leads the pack with 23% of respondents, while Detroit trails with only 6%. The age group 45-64 years old is the largest voting bloc at 37%, hinting that middle-aged voters could be a decisive force.
Along party lines, Republicans and Democrats are neck-and-neck at 38% each, while Independents hold the swing vote at 24%. When it comes to straight-ticket voters, nearly half (49%) are all-in on their party’s candidates.
Trump vs. Harris: Michigan Voters Are Split Down the Middle
The presidential race, in a classic face-off between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, has both candidates pulling in 48% of the vote. That’s where we were sitting in the Biden-Trump race back in June. Steve Mitchell says in the press release concerning the numbers, ““The fact that Trump continues to be in a dead heat statistically with Harris, despite the fact that most people, including the respondents to this poll, believe that Harris won the debate on Tuesday night, shows how firmly entrenched the Trump voters are.”
However, head-to-head races are not how elections are decided. When you add in all of the candidates including RFK Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, Harris comes out slightly ahead with 47% of the vote to Trump’s 46%.
56% of Michiganders said that Harris won the recent ABC debate; however, they are a skeptical bunch – 63% believe the debate won’t sway their decision, and only 5% are on the fence about switching sides.
As for trustworthiness, voters are nearly split on which candidate will faithfully follow and uphold the U.S. Constitution, with Harris edging out Trump by just two points. It’s safe to say that faith in political leadership is running on fumes.
Michigan Senate Race.
In the Michigan Senate race, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by a 3% margin.
The Economy Reigns Supreme.
The top issue on voters’ minds? The economy and inflation, which garnered 36% of responses. Concerns over threats to democracy and border/immigration issues followed closely behind. Despite the noise surrounding other hot-button topics like climate change and healthcare, these priorities barely registered, underscoring that, in Michigan, it’s still the wallet that wields the most power.
Voters are split on who they think can best solve the country’s biggest problems, with Trump taking a narrow lead over Harris, 50% to 47%. It’s a tug-of-war with no clear victor in sight, leaving Michiganders stuck in political purgatory, hoping that someone –anyone – can steer the country out of its current decline and chaos.
Who’s Feeling Better Off? Not Many, Apparently
And how are voters feeling about their current state of affairs compared to four years ago? A grim 56% say they’re worse off, with 43% describing their situation as “much worse.” It’s a bleak sentiment that could sway those on the fence when it comes to casting their ballots in November. If voters were smart, they’d remember who has been contributing to, if not in charge of, our decline and VOTE OUT THE DEMOCRATS.
The Final Takeaway: Enthusiasm Can’t Mask the Divides
In the end, Michigan’s voters are fired up, but the enthusiasm hides a deep divide. With absentee ballots in one hand and skepticism in the other, Michiganders are bracing for yet another contentious election season. The battle lines are drawn; now it’s just a matter of which side shows up in force.
About the poll
The poll was conducted Wednesday September 11, 2024 after the ABC News Presidential Debate the night before. It was conducted entirely by text messaging a randomly selected list of registered voter’s cell phones and directing them to a SurveyMonkey poll (MMS-Web). After collecting the data, it was weighted by age, gender, party affiliation, race, education, and result in the 2020 presidential election to reflect what was estimated to be the turnout in November 2024 in Michigan. The poll of (N=580 Likely Voters) has a Margin of Error is + or – 4.07% at the 95% level of confidence.
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