Recent reports out of his inner circle say former President Trump is running again in 2024. But there are a number of pros, both Republican and Democrat, in DC who think he’s up to something else. Perhaps kingmaker, a congressional run, buying a major news network, etc. Though sometimes DC can overthink an issue. Sometimes Occam’s Razor is the best bet. Thus, of course Trump is running. The man we know can do nothing else.
Would I vote for him against Joe Biden? Absolutely. Did last year. But I understand what and who I would be voting for. It is simply for an unrestrained id pray gawd backed up a solid conservative administration. It worked before, as the track record of the Trump administration in everything except Covid is excellent. But as to the purely political equation, that becomes a purely personal equation. The former president’s very basic nature demands another run to avenge his 2020 loss. It’s kind of like “Vote Trek II: The Wrath of Trump.”
That is the prime motivating factor behind the prospective campaign. There are certainly other factors. However, that one is the overwhelming reason. What will it look like from this point on? What about the 2022 midterms and Trump’s actions then? Will he cruise to a primary victory? I’ll explain it in the manner of General Buck Turgidson.
GOP Trump opponents talk big, but frankly they’re short of a majority in the base. You just can’t expect a bunch of ignorant peons like The Lincoln Project to get the current Republican primary process. If the Trump team is good, I mean if they’re really sharp, they will keep a relatively low profile until next year. Then they will barrel into the Republican midterms, you oughta see it, a big campaign like Trump’s, with a jet fueled effort that will fry Democrat chickens in a barnyard.
He’ll take credit for the possible 2022 GOP wave and that will be a message to internal opponents: Cross me and die. But those opponents may look at it a different way. They may think the Republican victory was due more to an anti-Biden vote, not a pro-Trump vote. They could point to the fact that Trump tanked two Senate candidates in Georgia in 2021 and with them control of the United States Senate. And they would be right about that. However, ultimately wrong about Trump’s internal party strength.
Because like it or not, he’s got a tight hold on the majority of the base. He knows that and it also drives him to run. He knows that if the anti-Trump faction, about a third of the party, came up with a legitimate challenger like Haley there may be an early surge for the GOP insurgency. Nevertheless, it would die on Super Tuesday, as Trump’s throngs went to the polls and crushed his opposition. He knows that too. So, motive and opportunity propel a Trump 2024 run into a high probability. For those of us who follow politics for a living or as a vocation, it at least promises to be definitely entertaining.