One way or another, to paraphrase Shakespeare, Donald Trump will continue to bestride the American political world like a colossus.
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If he wins he rules DC, to an extent, for another four years. If he loses he may run again and would be the front runner. He would also take legitimate credit when the Republicans take back the House, as he no doubt will campaign for them like a machine.
But even given that, if he runs in 2024 he won’t be alone. If Joe Biden loses in 2020. The Democrats also will have a wide open field in 2024, as an open seat attracts everybody, as we saw in 2016.
In 2024 if Trump wins now it will be a barnburner. You could see Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Kristi Nome, Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, and a host of others run for the Republican nomination. But, who has the guts to run against Trump if he loses now? Haley and a couple of outsiders may make that run. But she is not well liked in some conservative circles in South Carolina. Sources there say she is vulnerable on her right flank, especially on cultural issues.
The Democrats won’t run anyone against Kamala Harris in 2024. She and the Bolshies will have taken over the party. If Biden loses you’ll see most of the 2020 cast of characters plus some new Bolsheviks.
If this is the scenario then an interesting question arises. Would there be anywhere for Trumpians to go if Haley steered the party more moderate? Anyplace for the approximately 10 percent of anti-Trump Republicans? Anywhere for working class Democrats to go with no Trump around and a socialist Democrat Party?
Maybe. What if they coalesced into a legitimate Third Party? They can be effective. They sure as hell were in 1912, elected Wilson. They were in 1992, elected Clinton. 2000, elected Bush. And if we look at the state totals in 2020 I’m betting Trump would have taken a state or two more if the Libertarians had not been on the ballot.
Because Trump has rewritten so many of the rules, the parties must change or die. The Democrats, even if they win with Biden by fraud, are still walking over a cliff. A cliff that if they are not careful they could be shoved over by unpeaceful means.
The Republicans need to recalibrate their base a bit and appeal more to the burbs. Not the cities, they’re gone. If Trump’s distinct personality is off the scene that will help bring back the suburbs. But it’s more than that. We must have the brilliant cultural, economic, and national security results of Trump without so much Trump, after he is gone. While he is on the field of play he should be backed to the hilt. But cults of personality, in current or future forms, are never a smart thing.
This piece was written by David Kamioner on November 6, 2020. It originally appeared in DrewBerquist.com and is used by permission.
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