With the election a week away, Democrats continue to dominate the mail-in balloting, but Republicans are narrowing the gap and making it a horse race. GOP voters are showing up to vote early and in-person, a sign that many heeded President Donald Trump’s accurate warnings about mail-voting fraud. There are also lots of new voters. The question is: For who?

FNC: “On Oct. 15, Democrats registrants cast 51% of all ballots reported, compared with 25% from Republicans. On Sunday, Democrats had a slightly smaller lead, 51% to 31%. The early vote totals, reported by state and local election officials and tracked by the AP, are an imperfect indicator of which party may be leading. The data only shows party registration, not which candidate voters support. Most GOP voters are expected to vote on Election Day.”

“This is a glass half-full, glass half-empty situation,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster who tracks early voting. “They’re showing up more,” he added, but “Republicans need to rapidly narrow that gap.”

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In Florida, Democrats have outvoted Republicans by a 596,000 mail-in margin, while Republicans only have a 230,000 edge in person. That is not good in a key battleground state.

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In Nevada, where Democrats usually dominate in-person early voting, the GOP has a 42,600 voter edge in-person while Democrats have an 97,500 advantage in mail ballots. Again, not good for the GOP in a swing state.

“At some point, Republicans have to vote,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist, “You can’t force everyone through a vote center on Election Day. Are you going to expect all those Republicans to stand in line for eight hours?” Yes, because they’ve done it regularly before.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, warned that he does not expect a one-sided election. “There are signs of Republicans being engaged,” he said. “We do expect them to come out in very high numbers on Election Day.”

Those Republicans have helped contribute to large turnouts in red states such as Georgia, where 26.3% of the people who’ve voted are new or infrequent voters, and Texas, where 30.5% are new or infrequent voters. They seem to be the Republican silent majority coming to life.

This piece was written by David Kamioner on October 28, 2020. It originally appeared in DrewBerquist.com and is used by permission.

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