For over 37 years there was a sectarian civil war in Northern Ireland. British troops were called in by Unionists in 1969 to keep the peace and it spiraled into a low intensity conflict that officially lasted until 2007. The time was called, “The Troubles.”

It was over religion and statehood. Unionist/Protestant (pro-UK) forces and the British Army faced off against Irish Catholic Republican Nationalist forces street by street, alley by alley. It has now come to that on the streets of America. We live during The American Troubles.

On the streets of Portland, Seattle, Chicago, and as of late, Kenosha, Wisconsin opposing forces are using military weapons against each other. And in a sense, it’s also about religion. In this instance it’s the false God of Marxism versus Judeo-Christianity. Only one side can win.

How is this likely to turn out in the short and medium term? Who has the advantage and who is on what side? As an old U.S. Army Intel analyst, let me draw you an order of battle.

Using classic engagement colors, the Americans, us, the good guy Blue forces have a majority of responsible American citizens on our side. We have law enforcement. Right now, we have the Senate, the Supreme Court, and the presidency. The nation is also geographically divided. The west coast and major cities are occupied territory. The rest of the nation supports the Blue or just wants to stay out and stay safe. State governments, per the governor’s office, are just about even. We control 29 state legislatures. We are commanded nominally by the president, but the command structure is defused given the independent nature of most Blue forces and areas.

The opposing Red forces have almost the entire cultural apparatus. Silicon Valley, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, pop culture, entertainment, faculty lounges, publishing, Broadway, Hollywood, television, most media, and the colleges all fall under their sway. This is on top of union leadership, non-profits, the House, 24 governors, 19 state legislatures, and most residents of urban America.

How do they stack up against each other? Tactically, the advantage is Blue. But remember, in a low intensity conflict advantages can be turned around. Someone at a White House meeting told LBJ, at the beginning of the Vietnam War, that we would bomb the enemy into the stone age. Another, wiser, aide replied, “But what if they’re already in the stone age?”

Blue law enforcement and federal forces can’t be everywhere at once. Red forces know that. Red also can choose when and where to strike, keeping Blue off balance and thinly deployed. The likely end game of the Red force, if they don’t take the White House and thus then command federal forces, is to push American society to such a chaotic point that severe public safety measures will be enacted. Then they will scream, “Aha! That’s the fascism we’ve been talking about!” They will ignore the fact that they intentionally brought on the stern measures. This move has been in their playbook for over a century.

The battle in the streets will turn on the federal factor. If Blue retains power in November expect continued constant riots for years. As an example, between 1964-1971 there were over 750 major riots in America. If Red gains power the obvious rioting will cease. That’s because the rioters will now control the federal government.